Archive for January 30th, 2008

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Haute Couture icon Louis Vuitton will be entering uncharted waters with its first television ad campaign, a 90-second travel-themed commercial shot in France, Spain, India and Japan.

The company is calling it “the first ever on-screen corporate campaign by a luxury house.”

It’s a bold move by a company looking to expand its footprint in fast-growing markets like China, even though the ad will air worldwide. But I’m not sure if it’s the right move.

Just a few days ago, I wrote on WalletPop, our new personal finance blog, about the cooling demand for designer handbags. The reason? Fashion-forward consumers are concerned that the tops bags from the top designers have become all-too ubiquitous in current years, and no longer project an image of class and exclusivity.

A TV ad campaign could further turn off these consumers and do considerable damage to the brand’s cache. There’s a reason that Louis has opted not to do commercials in all its years as a top fashion home, and the abrupt shift raises questions.

Louis Vuitton is a division of LVMH Moet Hennessey L.V. (ADR) (OTC: LVMUY), publicly traded under an ADR under the symbol LVMUY on the Pink Sheets.

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As investors from around the world gear up for some Super Bowl fun and excitement, one firm is hoping to score a touchdown from the hype surrounding the world’s most watched football

E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC), the beleaguered online broker, plans to spend as much as $4 million for two ads airing during this weekend’s Super Bowl.

Is this just some more post-boom, sock puppet lunacy?

Maybe, but today’s Wall Street Journal article doesn’t think so. As the troubled broker tries to re-cement its image and reputation, the article claims that “the Super Bowl distraction couldn’t come at a superior time.”

As I wrote recently, billion-dollar losses due to exposure to investments-gone-bad in mortgages and home equity loans have prompted the firm to seriously turnaround the company. After receiving an infusion of cash from a leading hedge fund and ousting its CEO, investors are betting the company can turn itself around. The stock is up 18% since the company reported earnings last week.

Who are you betting wins the Super Bowl?

Could be that E*Trade is the true winner.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

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Despite a shaky economy where recession concerns deepen each day, car demand is booming for at least one major auto maker. It looks like even in a recession people continue to need vehicles, and the good times are rolling for vehicle maker Honda Motor Ltd. (NYSE: HMC), which reported that its profit rose 38.1% in the third-quarter. For this period, Japan’s second-biggest automakers counted strong sales for its fuel-efficient models in the U.S., Europe and Asia.

Honda’s third quarter profit climbed to 200 billion yen ($1.87 billion), compared with 144.8 billion yen in the same period last year year. Cost-cutting also made the automaker post a record gain in its earnings numbers during the fiscal third quarter.

One of Honda’s best competitive advantages is its strong reputation for providing more fuel-efficient cars. Thus, the current surge in oil prices helped Honda’s sales to jump 10% to 3.045 trillion yen ($28.52 billion).

Analysts saw the company’s quarterly earnings as “spectacular,” but there are still some concerns about Honda’s future gains. One analyst at Credit Suisse, Koji Endo, expressed worries about the auto maker’s fiscal year that starts in April, citing a weak U.S. dollar.

A strong yen also could dampen Honda’s earnings by reducing the value of overseas earnings. According to the Japanese automaker, the dollar is expected to trade at 105 yen in the January-March period, which Endo sees as “tough even for Honda.”

On the other hand, the analyst believes North American automobile sales will continue to gain moderate growth, even during a subprime mortgage crisis.

Looking ahead, Honda anticipates a rise for its global sales. The company now anticipates a profit of 690 billion yen ($6.46 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 31, which is up 16.5% from fiscal 2006. For its sales number, the automaker forecasts an increase of 9.6% from the previous year, but it cut its fiscal year sales outlook to 12.150 trillion yen ($113.82 billion) from an earlier 12.300 trillion yen.

For the next year, Honda intends to create a new hybrid model that runs on gas and electricity, and its sales are expected to reach 200,000 automobiles a year. The company’s strategy based more on hybrid offerings should help Honda to face strong competition from rivals such as Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). Honda also expects its sales will grow in South America, and it is planning to expand its production in Brazil and Argentina.

Honda shares are rising 2.9% in early morning trading.

Eliza Popescu is a financial writer for the on the web investment advisory service Investor’s Observer.

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Jerry Yang of Yahoo! Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Chief Executive Jerry Yang today promised good things to patient investors. Wall Street, though, wanted more immediate gratification from the fourth-quarter results and sent shares slumping in after-hours trading.

“While we will continue to face headwinds this year, we believe that the moves we are making will help us exit 2008 stronger and more competitive and return to higher levels of operating cash flow growth in 2009,” stated Yang, who replaced Terry Semel last year, in the earnings release.

Results in the latest quarter were, as expected, pretty bad. Net income was $206 million, or 15 cents per share, compared with $269 million, or 19 cents, a year earlier. The results beat the 11-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Revenue excluding so-called traffic acquisition costs rose 14% to $1.4 billion, a tad below analysts’ estimates of $1.41 billion.

Once again, Yahoo is promising that things will get better. “We still have a tremendous amount of work to do, but we’re confident we have the ability to substantially improve our users’ experiences and achieve meaningful incremental monetization opportunities for Yahoo!’s own ad inventory and that of our partners,” stated the company’s well-regarded President Sue Decker.

Wall Street has heard this story before.

Yahoo now must walk the walk as well as it speaks the talk.

See the full transcript of the conference call.

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Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Chief Executive Jerry Yang is going to have to convince investors that the company he helped found in 1995 still matters when it reports fourth quarter results later this day. It’s not going to be easy.

The most visited Web site is expected to report its eighth straight quarter of declining profit. according to Bloomberg News. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are anticipating an average profit of 11 cents on revenue of $1.41 billion. Expectations, to put it kindly, are real low.

The view of Sanford Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay quoted by Bloomberg that Yahoo “just isn’t generating anything like the resources they need to really stay in the game” is typical. Yahoo shares have plunged more than 27% over the past year.

Unfortunately, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) isn’t the only company taking a bite out of Yahoo which trails the search engine giant in each conceivable metric. Social networking sites such as Facebook continue to siphon away young users coveted by advertisers as are smaller niche sites, forcing Yahoo to offer rate discounts to advertisers.

But there are a few reasons to remain optimistic.

Yahoo continues to attract a large audience which advertisers can’t ignore. In an economic downturn, advertisers might shift dollars away from traditional media to the portal because it is so cost effective. Any improvement in its search market share would help its bottom line even if it continues to fall short of Google. Yahoo also is in the midst of trimming costs including layoffs.

Maybe, a leaner more focused Yahoo will emerge once the dust settles. Then again, investors have waited for a Yahoo turnaround for a long time and their patience is wearing thin.

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The market’s choppy / consolidating pattern continues, suggesting the need for an additional defensive play or two (or perhaps more), and with this as a backdrop, Ecolab is worth a review.

Ecolab (NYSE: ECL) is a global supplier of cleaning, sanitizing, and maintenance products and services for the hospitality, institutional, and industrial markets.

Analysts anticipate the company’s domestic institutional, Kay, food & beverage, health care, and pest elimination units to continue to expand. Revenue is expected to increase a healthy 10-13% in 2008.

Further, international sales should continue to be strong, with better-than-adequate margins. Overall costs remain reasonable, even with higher raw material costs. In short, it’s a largely positive commercial landscape for ECL, bolstered by favorable international economic conditions. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for Ecolab are $1.66/$1.90.

The dangers? Ecolab remains vulnerable to unexpected slowdowns in the hospitality, travel, and food service sectors. Analysts also have their on those aforementioned raw material costs, and ECL’s capability to launch successful new products.

The First Call mean rating for ECL is: Buy. [16 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $56.00. [high: $60, low: $51.]

Stock Analysis: Ecolab is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from ECL’s shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $28.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Among investment gurus, Ken Fisher is undoubtedly one of the ideal. The Only Three Questions that Count is one of the ideal investment books to come out in recent memory, he has put together an amazing track record with Fisher Investments, and he’s even on the Forbes list of the 400 richest Americans.

So why, Ken, must you promote yourself with all the subtlety of a late-night no-money-down infomercial guru?

Just once, I would like to be able to log on to Forbes.com without having to smash my speakers to silence your pitch for your firm.

I feel like a lot of serious, smart investors skip Ken Fisher because they’re so turned off by the incessant marketing… we associate that kind of relentless pitching with charlatans, which Ken Fisher is most certainly not.

So the purpose of this post is two-fold: if you haven’t read Ken Fisher’s book, you really ought to go purchase it. It’s 58% off on Amazon. And if you’re Ken Fisher, please think about hiring a new, more nuanced marketing firm.

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The relationship between Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) and Wall Street has been sour for a while. Shares of the chocolate maker have plunged more than 30% over the past year amid concerns about rising commodity prices and the growth of healthier eating habits. Now, the confectioner is raising wholesale prices by an average of 13% on one-third of its domestic product line effective immediately [subscription required].

Chocoholics are paying the price for higher costs for raw materials, fuel, utilities, and transportation.

The move comes less than a week after the Pennsylvania company reported lousy fourth quarter results and gave investors disappointing guidance. In addition, the No. 1 candy maker recently bowed to pressure from law enforcement officials and stated it would stop making Ice Breakers Pacs mints after some complaints that the candy might be mistaken for heroin or cocaine.

Yet another reason for people to eat healthy.

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The economy may not be in recession yet, and there’s a minor chance it will avoid one in 2008, but marketers/advertisers seem to be in ‘recession-mode,’ regarding the tone of their ads, The New York Times reported Monday.

Along with Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), the Times cited several corporations that have taken a ‘tougher times ahead’ approach with ads. These include Capital One (NYSE: COF), “Uncertain times call for a certain rate,” Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), which is testing a $1 coffee in Seattle, Washington, and Nissan (NASDAQ: NSANY), which is emphasizing the fuel economy of its 2008 Altima, rather than the car’s styling and performance.

Stephen Quinn, Wal-Mart’s chief marketing officer, told the Times, “When gas prices spiked last spring, we saw the pressure this put on our core customers.”

Economic Analysis:
With major ad markets in California and Florida bearing a huge portion of the housing sector’s slump, it’s not surprising that corporations have altered ad campaigns to emphasize the money-saving / better value nature aspects of their products and services. But one should not equate this with Corporation America believing a recession is ahead. Ad tweaking indicates that a corporation doesn’t anticipate a robust year in its sector, and is adjusting its operational stance.

A superior indicator of Corporate America’s view of the economy? Staff hiring. If dozens of corporations announce that they’re laying off employees, that’d be an indication that a economic contraction is likely.

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Today’s New York Times takes a look at Target (NYSE: TGT) and what can only be described as its arrogant attitude towards bloggers.

ShapingYouth.org sent an e-mail to the company, criticizing an ad Target was running that featured a woman lying on a Target logo with the bullseye centered on her crotch. Target responded by saying that, “Unfortunately we’re unable to respond to your inquiry because Target does not participate with nontraditional media outlets.”

Wow! That kind of arrogance reminds me of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) — isn’t Target supposed to be hip and chic? You’d think it would be up on what a powerful force bloggers are becoming.

A policy of not responding to blogs makes no sense at all. Companies should respond to questions from any potential customer.

Target explained to the New York Times that the ad was a woman making a snow angel, suggesting that it wasn’t meant to be provocative. From looking at the ad, and despite the retailer’s attitude, I’m actually inclined to agree.

Target could have saved itself a lot of trouble by just writing back to the blogger, explaining the idea behind the ad. Instead, the company’s PR team is now answering the same question from the New York Times, and wasting further time defending its asinine policy of not responding to blogs.

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