Filed under: Forecasts, Google (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), Marketing and advertising, Economic data

The Wall Street Journal reports that “Despite economic uncertainty, on the web retail sales are forecast to rise 17% this year to a record $204 billion, according to a new study” from market-research firm Forrester Research. If the numbers are true, it is probably good for companies like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) that pick up a huge portion of their revenue from retailers.

But the numbers might be way too high. On the web retailers had hoped for and projected a breakout holiday season last year. Numbers came in below most expectations.

Google is already fighting the perception that the volume of people who click on its text ads is falling sharply. The web retail market, which only became a real opportunity for advertisers in the last decade, has never been through a large recession. In other words, the 17% growth is a guess, and one that’s probably too high.

With same-store sales in the brick-and-mortar world showing negative numbers, it is hard to believe that online sales won’t suffer.

Up 17%? No way. Ten percent if they’re lucky.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Filed under: Competitive strategy, Microsoft (MSFT), Marketing and advertising, Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Best Purchase (BBY), Circuit City Stores (CC)

Ideal Purchase, Inc. (NYSE: BBY), always the one to capitalize on very special marketing opportunities at each chance it gets, sees another one coming down the road very soon. The upcoming Nintendo Wii gaming title Wii Fit, which is to be released on May 17, should be one of Nintendo’s hottest gaming titles of this year.

The Wii has made its mark using interactive and physical gameplay, requiring the physical involvement of the players instead of the couch potato thumb involvement of regular competitive game consoles. For that reason alone, the Wii has become immensely popular, outselling both the Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) Playstation 3 and the Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360.

Ideal Buy’s marketing angle with the Wii Fit release happening in over a month includes some teaser ads near fitness DVDs that use Nintendo’s catchy Wii slogan: “how will it move you?” The new Wii Fit game, which will include a “balance board” to help those playing the game to interact as much as possible physically, needs to have a “best outlet” for sales here in the U.S. due to its existing mass population appeal, and if Best Buy can ramp up anticipation correctly, it might become the outlet to purchase the Wii Fit game title come the third week of Might. That’s, unless competitor Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) becomes aggressive on its Wii Fit marketing — and I don’t see that happening.

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Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Products and services, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, Marketing and advertising, China, NIKE, Inc’B’ (NKE), Politics

With this year’s summer Olympics just around the corner, athletic outfitter Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) unveiled its new Olympic products yesterday.

While Nike has never really embraced the concept of being a sponsor for the Olympics, it prides itself on being an outfitter for the competing athletes. This year there will be thousands of Olympic hopefuls from over a hundred companies that will be sporting the famous “Nike Swoosh” on themselves for millions of watchers to see.

Nike will definitely leave its own footprint all over this summer’s Olympic games. For the first time ever, BMX will be an Olympic medal sport, and the new Nike gear for the sport is being heralded by Nike’s global director for action sports, John Martin, as the “illest BMX product ever.” I honestly thought the word “illest” vanished from the vocabulary around the same time as Run-DMC; guess I was wrong. But I will definitely look forward to seeing the “illest” BMX gear ever, Nike definitely got my attention on that one!

The Olympics this year are definitely going to be one of interest for many around the world, and controversy over it being held in China has already led to protests, riots and deaths over China’s record on human rights. It’s a touchy subject for Nike, considering that roughly 33% of all Nike shoes in the world are made in Chinese factories.

One thing is for sure, it’s going to be a colorful summer for sports. Will any athletes outdo former Olympic superstar Michael Johnson’s gold Nike’s from the ‘96 Olympics? I doubt it, but then again, you never know what some of these athletes have up their sleeves.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the on the internet investment advisory service Investor’s Observer.

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Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Law, Marketing and advertising, Palm Inc (PALM)

Yesterday, Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) had to add $25 million to its losses for last quarter due to a write down in the value of auction-rate securities. Public companies are likely to have to do more of that as they report their first-quarter numbers. A number of individuals will also get brokerage statements that will show that each dollar they have in the instruments is now worth as tiny as 80 cents.

The bonds produced by the auction-rate market have been considered the equivalent of cash since the market began in 1985. The auctions were run frequently by massive banks, so getting money in and out of the paper was simple. But, late last year and early this year, the banks that made the market in the instruments effectively shut the system down. Part of their role was to take excess securities in each auction and hold them until the next set of trading They could sell them then. But, in a tight credit market, banks did not want to hold the paper on their balance sheets.

Now the SEC and Financial Industry Regulatory Authority want to know if brokerage firms and banks marketed the auction-rate securities as cash equivalents while knowing that they were not. According to The Wall Street Journal: “Brokers had pitched auction-rate securities as liquid, super-safe investments with interest rates slightly better to those of conventional money-market funds. Now investors are asking why they weren’t warned about the possibility of failed auctions.”

The entire value of auction-rate investments now in the market is almost $360 billion. Most of those securities are not trading now, so companies and individuals cannot get their money out. That might make for one, very massive class action suit or a series of smaller ones by investors who want their “cash.”

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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